TRADING THE FUTURE
$19.99
TRADING THE FUTURE
How Prediction Markets, Data, and Human Intelligence Are Rewriting Finance
Every important decision is a bet on the future. A central bank setting rates, a company hedging fuel, a family choosing between seed, school fees and a lottery ticket: each is a judgment about probability, usually made without ever saying so.
Trading the Future offers a practical framework for reasoning under uncertainty. It begins with a question most books skip: which game am I playing? A game against the rules, against the house, against the crowd, or against nature? From there it builds a seven-step method for turning opinions into documented probability judgments, and applies it to lotteries, sport, stocks, interest rates, corporate risk, and the catastrophe insurance that already protects governments from Jamaica to Haiti.
Drawing on twenty-five years in finance and development across Africa and the Caribbean, Barnabé François explains how prediction markets work, why their legal status is contested, who tends to lose in them, and why the disciplined decision is often not to act at all.
This is not a system for beating markets or bookmakers, and it promises no profits. It is a guide to calibration, decision discipline and market literacy, for anyone who wants to think more clearly when nothing is certain.